How Franchisors Can Save the Breakfast Daypart

The breakfast wars of 2020 were put on hold this spring as the COVID-19 pandemic took hold of the restaurant industry. COVID-19 dashed any perception that breakfast would be the fastest-growing daypart of the restaurant industry this year — it’s instead become the opposite for many franchisors.

Pre-COVID-19, historically low unemployment created more on-the-go commuters who were increasingly seeking out affordable breakfasts to accommodate their busy lifestyles. Breakfast and the morning snack category grew 5% during the last five years, and QSR chains like Wendy’s, Dunkin’, Burger King and McDonald’s were all fighting for a slice of the segment.

Then COVID-19 hit, and breakfast was the easiest meal to convert back to home and therefore suffered the steepest transaction declines.

“Breakfast is a habitual daypart. Once you disrupt that routine, it takes time to sort of rebuild it,” Chris Kempczinski, McDonald’s CEO, said during Evercore ISI’s Virtual Consumer & Retail Summit webcast. 

At the start of the pandemic, McDonald’s decreased its breakfast marketing since it was getting low returns on investment. The company also temporarily pulled its all-day breakfast menu in March and limited offerings to popular items to streamline operations. 

Taco Bell also had big plans for breakfast, rolling out a new Toasted Breakfast Burrito menu just days before dining rooms started to close across the country. At Taco Bell, declining breakfast and late-night sales led to a high single-digit decline in same-store sales from quarter to quarter. In April, Taco Bell franchisees had the option to pause breakfast and just work hours that would be appropriate to optimize the business model, David Gibbs, Yum Brands CEO, said during an April earnings call with investors. 

Wendy’s breakfast actually performed well in May and made up about 8% of U.S. systemwide sales, according to a press release. What likely helped was its social media and TV marketing efforts before the pandemic, which increased customer awareness by 50% for the daypart. The strength of Wendy’s breakfast daypart shows that recovery for the daypart could be within reach.

As recovery continues, smaller franchisors may actually have an advantage. Family-dining chain, First Watch, is suburban-heavy in its franchise locations, giving it an edge over quick-service giants that customers normally frequent on their morning commute or in major cities with public transportation. The brand has seen steady sales, and 18 new units open, since the pandemic hit the U.S. in March of this year. That can be attributed to loyal customers and an investment in technology, CEO Chris Tomasso told NRN. 

That suburban demographic could be the key to moving forward. Interest in breakfast is expected to vary market by market, and instead of doing a national push, franchisors will need to take a regional approach depending on how and where people return back to their normal patterns. For example, McDonald’s plans to add new products later in the year, but will likely limit them to certain markets. 

Whether it be increased national marketing, strategic regional menu rollouts or a combination of both, franchisors will need to be smart if they hope to save the breakfast daypart.