COVID-19 Vaccine: What it Means For the Pizza and Fast Food Boom

The FDA on Tuesday announced it found Moderna’s emerging COVID-19 vaccine “highly effective” and safe in what looks like a green light as the first Americans receive their inoculations after nine months of pandemic lockdowns.

For the food and beverage industry, which massively restructured and pivoted for delivery and off-premise dining, this could spell a major shift. 

The quick service restaurant industry, pizza in particular, has experienced a boom during COVID-19 lockdowns. With dining rooms shut across the country, 1851 Franchise has heard from several large pizza and restaurant franchises that sales are up as they pivot to contactless payment and delivery. 

But the current boom may not last. Throughout the pandemic, pent-up demand for dine-in services has remained high. Pre-pandemic, Americans typically planned their social calendar around diners and nights out at bars. Over months of restrictions, all metrics indicate Americans are anxious to return to their favorite dining rooms and barstools. 

Goldman Sachs estimated on Monday that by April, 50% of the U.S. population could have COVID-19 vaccinations. Health authorities plan to vaccinate older, more vulnerable populations before getting to young, healthy Americans, so that 50% will go a long way towards limiting the danger of the virus’ spread. 

Pizza, Delivery Bubble to Pop?

The spike in pizza and fast food sales took place in an absence of normal market competitors: casual and fine dining restaurants with a large dine-in presence. 

“Restaurants are really going to be a light in darkness for people,” said Leslie Rabin, senior product manager at Datassential, a food industry analytics firm, during a Nation’s Restaurant News webinar in May. 

“These are things that people feel will bring them back to pre-COVID times. Americans are really excited to get out of their homes and into restaurants right now,” she continued.

But for many dine-in restaurants in both the casual and fine dining space, they won’t live to see the other side of the pandemic. COVID-19 restrictions have closed  a whopping 110,00 American restaurants, with independent and fine-dining concepts taking the brunt of the fall. 

So far, pizza giant Domino’s and QSR titan Yum! Brands have not seen a drop in stock price on the vaccine news, but smart investors may want to watch this space.